In a world where defense budgets skyrocket, AI steals the spotlight, and geopolitics dictate the news, climate policy seems to be taking a backseat. But one thing remains crystal clear: Europe’s energy dependence is as strong as ever. And when it comes to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), that dependency has two familiar faces – the United States and Russia.
They say, “When you face a crisis, you know who your true friends are.” Magic Johnson’s words could just as well describe Europe’s current energy alliances. While Trump is busy deterring his own energy transition, he is paradoxically fueling Europe’s. Natural gas, the cleanest of the fossil fuels, accounts for about 20% of the European energy mix, and 35% of this consists of imported LNG. In January 2025, a record 58% of those LNG imports came from the US.
This growing reliance on American gas comes with strings attached. It makes Europe vulnerable to political impulses across the Atlantic, and Brussels seems ready to double down on that dependency. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has hinted at ramping up LNG imports even further in what looks like an attempt to avoid Trump’s “most beautiful word in the dictionary”: tariffs.
Yet, that gamble didn’t quite pay off. Despite intentions for increased energy imports, Trump has still announced tariffs on European steel, aluminum, and – possibly soon – alcoholic beverages. Ironically, China’s 15% tariff on US LNG is pushing even more of the super-chilled fuel towards Europe, and with Trump accelerating export terminal approvals, a flood of American gas could drive down LNG prices in the long run.
Meanwhile, Europe’s ambition to detach itself from Russian fossil fuels by 2027 looks shaky. Pipeline gas, oil, and coal imports from Russia have indeed plummeted, but Russian LNG? That’s a different story. Imports hit a record high in 2024, proving that old habits die hard.
Europe’s course is set. Trumpian distractions shouldn’t throw it off track. But as our continent navigates this energy chess game, one thing is clear: when you rely on others to keep the lights on, you’d better make sure they don’t flip the switch.
